Huh. I never thought I’d write a post quite like this, but here we are. It’s the day after election day, and Scott Murphy’s narrow lead has now shrunk to just 25 votes (according to the AP). Thousands of absentee ballots are outstanding, and no one is quite sure how they’ll come down (though some Dems are hazarding a few guesses).
So we go back to the drawing board. The old predictions get cast out the window. What say you now? Share your prognostications in comments, and be sure to vote in the poll (click here or check below the fold). If you make a new prediction, tell us – exactly how many votes will the winner win by?
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Murphy by 231 votes.
Murphy by 123 votes.
I’ll go with Murphy by 68.
More pessimistic than the Democratic Party, but still…
Tedisco by 348… hope I’m wrong!
Murphy by 37 votes.
I don’t think county-by-county extrapolation ever works all that well for absentee and military ballots, so I’m just throwing darts at the metaphorical wall here.
Who is it that votes absentee in upstate New York? In Alaska, the absentees and provisionals saved Begich. I know that in Florida, Obama was said to benefit from in-person early votes and McCain from absentees (absentees in Florida skew older and wealthier). So are absentees in NY-20 retired or wealthy folks? Or are they students, white collar liberals, etc.?
But Murphy wins the best two-out-of-three Rock/Paper/Scissors tiebreaker. Jimmy Disco still thinks nothing beats rock.
How close it has to be before the Republican legal team goes to court?
Disco by 150.
http://voices.washingtonpost.c…
Democrats are predicting a 210 vote win for Scott Murphy based on election night % and where these votes are coming from. Interesting…
Signs point to Murphy by 85.
by 342 votes.
The main factor that I think is being ignored is that Murphy surged late and many absentee voters already casted their ballots.
Murphy by 85… I hope I’m right; if Murphy loses it’s the end of Patterson’s already fading career. Not that that would be a bad thing but I really want this seat. I also want to see Gillibrand go down in a primary and Patterson lose to Cuomo.
Anyone else with me?
Election remains tied up in court until 2010.
Will it be a coin toss or a cage fight to the death?
since this district’s number is 20…
I’m not ready to make a prediction yet, but I think the sleeper absentee votes in this race are the NOP’s and Independence voters, which should lean heavily for Murphy….
Murphy by 38. No reasoning behind it.
by 57.
My gut tells me they’ll break more for Tedesco, and that he’ll win by 180.
13 votes.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
Tedisco, by more than 150 votes.
But then, I’ve always been a pessimist on this one.
by 666 votes.
Another tribute to Dems not knowing how to use power.
Tedisco is made extremely angry that he does not live in the district. He will move in for the midterms, but will still lose.
By 19 votes. GOP uses this and Franken win, to no avail of course, in every fundraising email from now until Oct 2010. Tedisco/RNC/RNCC go to court. Murphy gets seated anyway. They pick up a net 3 House seats in the midterms, we pick up a net 4 Senate seats. JT becomes the GOP’s Christine Jennings.
In light of Disco gaining more votes by the day, I’m going to say he wins by a fairly decent margin, say close to 500 votes.